FIRE Scenarios
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Portfolio Trajectory
Year-by-Year Breakdown
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Calculate your path to Financial Independence using the 4% rule — enter your numbers and see exactly when you can retire.
| Type | Annual Spend | FIRE Number | Years Away | FIRE Age |
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| Year | Age | Portfolio | Growth | Contributions | FIRE Number | Progress |
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Calculate exactly how much money you need to retire early — your Financial Independence number — and how long it will take at your current savings rate. The calculator also shows your Coast FIRE number: the point at which you can stop contributing and let compound growth carry you to full retirement.
Built for Australians planning early retirement, but useful for anyone following a FIRE strategy anywhere in the world.
Updated for the 2026–27 Federal Budget: reflects the new income tax brackets (effective 1 July 2026) and the replacement of the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation and a 30% minimum rate (effective 1 July 2027). The FIRE Number shown is tax-adjusted — it's the portfolio size needed so that 4% withdrawals cover your expenses after income tax and CGT.
Further reading: Debt Recycling 101 — how to use your mortgage to build wealth faster →
Further reading: Why High-Yield ETFs are the Smarter Choice for Debt Recycling — the cash-flow math for high-income investors →
Noise vs. Fundamentals — why market crashes and tax changes don't break the long-term ETF playbook →
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. The idea is to save aggressively — typically 50–70% of income — and invest the surplus so your portfolio generates enough passive income to cover your living expenses indefinitely, without needing to work.
The 4% rule (from the Trinity Study) suggests that a retirement portfolio can sustain a 4% annual withdrawal rate indefinitely, adjusted for inflation. Your FIRE number is therefore your annual expenses multiplied by 25.
Coast FIRE is the portfolio size at which — even if you stop contributing entirely — compound growth will carry it to your full FIRE number by your target retirement age. Once you've coasted, you only need to earn enough to cover your current living expenses.
No — enter super contributions separately in the "Super contributions / year" field, and enter only liquid savings (ETFs, shares, cash) in "Annual savings / contributions". The calculator tracks them separately because super grows at the same rate but is locked until ~60, which affects how much of your wealth you can access before preservation age.
The calculator assumes constant returns and inflation rates. Real returns vary significantly year to year. Treat the output as a planning estimate to guide your strategy, not a guarantee of outcomes.
The Dividend Target is the portfolio size needed to cover your annual expenses entirely from dividend income — without ever selling shares. It's calculated by dividing your annual expenses by your dividend yield assumption. For example, at a 4% yield you need 25× your annual expenses. This differs from your FIRE Number in that it relies purely on income yield, not the 4% withdrawal rule. It suits investors who prefer to live off dividends and leave their capital untouched.
The May 2026 Federal Budget introduced two changes that directly affect FIRE planning, both effective from 1 July 2026 or 1 July 2027:
Both changes affect how much you need to withdraw from your portfolio each year in retirement, which in turn affects your FIRE Number. This calculator accounts for both.
The updated Australian rates (including 2% Medicare levy) from 1 July 2026:
Enter your expected income in retirement and the calculator will apply the correct marginal rate automatically. You can override it manually in the Tax & CGT section if needed.
When you sell investments to fund retirement, you trigger CGT on any capital gains. The 2026 budget replaced the 50% discount with inflation indexation for assets acquired after 12 May 2026:
The calculator grosses up your annual withdrawal to cover both your expenses and the CGT owed on that withdrawal. Your FIRE Number is then the portfolio size where 4% covers this grossed-up withdrawal. The "Without tax" line on the FIRE Number card shows the pre-tax comparison.
The cost base ratio is the percentage of your portfolio's current value that represents money you originally invested — as opposed to capital growth. For example, if you invested $400,000 and your portfolio is now worth $1,000,000, your cost base ratio is 40%.
A lower cost base ratio means a higher proportion of each dollar you sell is a taxable gain, so CGT has a bigger impact on your FIRE Number. A ratio of 100% means no gain at all — the FIRE Number will match the pre-tax figure.
If you are unsure, 40–60% is a reasonable estimate for a portfolio that has been growing for 5–10 years at typical market returns.