Alcoa Corporation (AAI.AX)

DCF Valuation · Basic Materials · Aluminum

Valuation as at 2026-08-04 · refreshed with the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen

About Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.

Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary

Alcoa Corporation AAI.AX

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Price
$65.46
Market Cap
$17.28B
Free Cash Flow
$0.96B
Beta
1.62
P/E (TTM)
9.5x
52-Week Range
$44.27–$117.87

AAI.AX's price & financial trends

Quarterly reporting periods — the most granular consistent series Yahoo provides for this market.

Data refreshed 2026-08-04

Share price · last 2 years

$65.46 +37% vs first period
ASX 200 $47.85$57.01$45.00$63.30$87.48$65.46 2024-082025-012025-062025-112026-042026-08

Earnings per share (diluted)

$1.53 -26% vs first period
$2.07$0.62$0.85$1.60$1.53Q1 '25Q2 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Free cash flow

$0.42B +18% vs first period
$0.36B-$0.07B$0.29B-$0.30B$0.42BQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Dividend per share

$0.10 -6% vs first period
$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast

BEAR
$43.23
vs current $65.46
-34.0% ❌ Overvalued
BASE
$77.79
vs current $65.46
+18.8% ⚠️ Fairly Valued
BULL
$104.60
vs current $65.46
+59.8% ✅ Undervalued

Assumptions used in this valuation

Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.

Risk-free rate
4.80% ● LIVE
Live 10-yr govt bond
Beta
1.62
Floored for non-US stocks
Equity risk premium
6.00%
Market-specific seed
Cost of debt
5.00%
Estimated (no debt/interest data)
Tax rate
25.00%
Estimated default
Capital structure
E 89% / D 11%
Market cap vs total debt
Projection horizon
5 years
+ terminal value beyond
BearBaseBull
5-yr FCF growth12.5%25.0%30.0%
Terminal growth2.5%2.5%2.5%
WACC (discount rate)14.31%13.31%12.31%

Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 4.80% + 1.62 × 6.00% = 14.54% · WACC = weighted by 89%/11% capital structure

These numbers come from running Alcoa Corporation's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or AAI.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?

Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with AAI.AX →

More ASX 300 Most Undervalued stocks

Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

About this valuation

Refreshed on the same cycle as the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Change any assumption yourself in the full interactive tool.

Frequently asked questions

Is AAI.AX undervalued?

The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $77.79 vs a current price of $65.46 — a +18.8% margin, so the Base case reads fairly valued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.