Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AX)

DCF Valuation · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Valuation as at 2026-08-04 · refreshed with the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen

About Fortescue Ltd

Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing.

Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary

Fortescue Ltd FMG.AX

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Price
$18.08
Market Cap
$55.67B
Free Cash Flow
$3.19B
Beta
0.76
P/E (TTM)
10.5x
52-Week Range
$17.65–$23.38

FMG.AX's price & financial trends

Annual reporting periods — this market does not have reliable quarterly data on Yahoo (either it isn’t required, or coverage is incomplete), so annual is the most granular consistent series across free cash flow and dividends.

Data refreshed 2026-08-04

Share price · last 2 years

$18.08 -1% vs first period
ASX 200 $18.27$19.13$15.28$21.58$19.65$18.08 2024-082025-012025-062025-112026-042026-08

Earnings per share (diluted)

$1.10 -45% vs first period
$2.01$1.56$1.84$1.10FY22FY23FY24FY25

Free cash flow

$3.24B -16% vs first period
$3.84B$4.53B$5.08B$3.24BFY22FY23FY24FY25

Dividend per share

$0.93 -57% vs first period
$2.17$1.27$1.34$0.93FY22FY23FY24FY25

Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast

BEAR
$17.96
vs current $18.08
-0.7% ⚠️ Fairly Valued
BASE
$29.19
vs current $18.08
+61.4% ✅ Undervalued
BULL
$48.10
vs current $18.08
+166.1% ✅ Undervalued

Assumptions used in this valuation

Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.

Risk-free rate
4.80% ● LIVE
Live 10-yr govt bond
Beta
0.76
Floored for non-US stocks
Equity risk premium
6.00%
Market-specific seed
Cost of debt
5.00%
Estimated (no debt/interest data)
Tax rate
25.00%
Estimated default
Capital structure
E 91% / D 9%
Market cap vs total debt
Projection horizon
5 years
+ terminal value beyond
BearBaseBull
5-yr FCF growth8.1%16.1%24.2%
Terminal growth2.5%2.5%2.5%
WACC (discount rate)9.84%8.84%7.84%

Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 4.80% + 0.76 × 6.00% = 9.37% · WACC = weighted by 91%/9% capital structure

These numbers come from running Fortescue Ltd's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or FMG.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?

Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with FMG.AX →

More ASX 300 Most Undervalued stocks

Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

About this valuation

Refreshed on the same cycle as the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Change any assumption yourself in the full interactive tool.

Frequently asked questions

Is FMG.AX undervalued?

The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $29.19 vs a current price of $18.08 — a +61.4% margin, so the Base case reads undervalued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.